🔗 Share this article Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro. A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”
A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”